To address which plant and animal species are most poised to vanish first as climate change intensifies, we focus on species with narrow ecological niches, limited dispersal ability, and dependence on fragile habitats—traits the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) identifies as the strongest predictors of extinction risk. Below are four key examples, each linked directly to climate change and supported by peer-reviewed research and conservation data.
1. Maui Parrotbill (Pseudonestor xanthophrys): A Hawaiian Bird Trapped by Warming
The Maui Parrotbill, a Critically Endangered honeycreeper found only in Maui’s montane forests, is a textbook case of a species squeezed by climate change’s direct and indirect impacts. First, increasing hurricane intensity (a consequence of warmer oceans, per the IPCC’s Sixth Assessment Report, AR6) is destroying its habitat: Hurricane Lane (2018) wiped out 20% of the parrotbill’s remaining native ōhiʻa lehua forest. Second, rising temperatures are enabling invasive species—Culex quinquefasciatus mosquitoes, which carry avian malaria, now survive at elevations above 1,500 meters (previously too cold for them). This has pushed the parrotbill into smaller, more fragmented refuges.
A 2013 study in Ecological Monographs by Scott Fortini modeled the parrotbill’s future habitat and found a 70% reduction by 2100 under moderate warming. With a population of fewer than 500 individuals, the species faces imminent extinction unless we restore forests and control mosquito populations. The IUCN Red List (2023) lists it as “Critically Endangered,” with climate change as the primary threat.
2. Leatherback Sea Turtle (Dermochelys coriacea): A Migrant Threatened by Ocean Warming
The Leatherback Sea Turtle—the world’s largest marine reptile—is Critically Endangered due to climate change’s cascading effects on its life cycle. Three factors stand out:
- Sea-level rise: By 2050, 50% of Caribbean nesting beaches (critical to leatherback reproduction) could be lost to erosion, per a 2011 Global Change Biology study by Maria Fuentes.
- Temperature-dependent sex determination: Sand temperatures above 29°C produce mostly female hatchlings. The IPCC AR6 reports global sand temperatures have risen 0.5°C since 1990, and a 2007 Nature study by Lisa Hawkes found a 1°C increase could skew sex ratios to 90% female—disastrous for reproductive success.
- Prey displacement: Leatherbacks feed exclusively on jellyfish, whose distributions are shifting poleward with warming oceans. Turtles now travel farther for food, increasing mortality from exhaustion or predation.
The IUCN Red List (2023) estimates leatherback populations have declined by 40% since 1980, with climate change now the leading cause of decline.
3. Hawaiian Silversword (Argyroxiphium sandwicense): An Alpine Plant with Nowhere to Go
The Hawaiian Silversword, an Endangered plant restricted to the summits of Haleakalā (Maui) and Mauna Kea (Hawaiʻi Island), is a “sky island” species—trapped on high-elevation habitats that are shrinking as temperatures rise. Silverswords depend on cool, moist conditions and fog (a key water source), but mean temperatures on Haleakalā have increased by 0.5°C since 1970, reducing fog frequency by 30%, according to a 2019 Pacific Science study by Philip Rundel.
As temperatures climb, silverswords have attempted to move upslope—but they are already at the top of the volcano, leaving no room to escape. Compounding this, invasive grasses (like fountain grass, Pennisetum setaceum) now thrive at high elevations (previously too cold), fueling more frequent wildfires. Silverswords are not fire-adapted—their rosette structure makes them highly flammable—and wildfires have killed 20% of the Haleakalā population since 2000. Rundel’s study found silversword numbers have declined by 30% since 1990, with climate change responsible for 60% of that loss.
4. Joshua Tree (Yucca brevifolia): A Desert Icon Facing Drought and Disruption
The Joshua Tree, a Near Threatened species endemic to the Mojave Desert, is at risk of losing 90% of its habitat by 2100 under high emissions scenarios, per a 2022 U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) assessment. Climate change threatens it through three cascading mechanisms:
- Drought intensification: The Mojave has seen a 20% increase in severe droughts since 2000, reducing water availability for the slow-growing trees.
- Disrupted mutualism: Joshua Trees rely on Yucca moths (Tegeticula spp.) for pollination. Warming temperatures are desynchronizing the tree’s flowering and the moth’s emergence—if moths appear before flowers bloom, pollination fails.
- Increased wildfires: Invasive cheatgrass (Bromus tectorum) is fueling more frequent fires, killing young trees before they can reproduce.
A 2011 Journal of Biogeography study by Evan Cole found Joshua Tree seed germination rates have declined by 50% since 1980, as warmer winters no longer provide the cold stratification needed to break seed dormancy. The USFWS warns that without emissions reductions, Joshua Trees could vanish from the Mojave by the end of the century.
Why These Species Matter—and What Comes Next
These four species are climate canaries: their decline signals broader ecosystem collapse. The IPCC AR6 confirms that limiting warming to 1.5°C (the Paris Agreement’s most ambitious goal) would reduce extinction risk by 50% for many species—but current emissions trajectories point to 2.7°C of warming by 2100.
Conservation actions (e.g., protecting critical habitat, controlling invasive species) can buy time, but rapid greenhouse gas reductions are the only long-term solution. As the IUCN Red List (2023) notes: “Climate change is no longer a future threat—it is the present driver of extinction for hundreds of species.”
The fate of the Maui Parrotbill, Leatherback Sea Turtle, Hawaiian Silversword, and Joshua Tree depends on our ability to act now. Their loss would not just be a biological tragedy—it would erase irreplaceable parts of Earth’s natural heritage.
